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Ninety One Global Strategic Equity Feeder Fund  |  Global-Equity-General
26.4415    -0.1777    (-0.668%)
NAV price (ZAR) Wed 2 Jul 2025 (change prev day)


Investec Worldwide Equity Feeder comment - Sep 11 - Fund Manager Comment18 Nov 2011
Market review
Sovereign indebtedness and slowing growth remained key concerns for markets during the quarter. Early August ushered in the start of a strong and rapid correction for risk assets as 'contagion fears' coincided with poor macro releases and a surprise downgrade to US long-term federal debt. Although second quarter results were generally solid, investors worried about a double-dip recession, a Chinese 'hard landing', and the perceived lack of political inaction over Greece as a debt default or euro exit appeared increasingly likely. Rumours over the potential enlargement of the European Financial Stability Facility and new injections for troubled banks, helped to stabilise markets to some extent at the end of the quarter. The MSCI All Countries World Index tumbled 17.4% in US dollar terms.

Portfolio review
The portfolio experienced a tough quarter. Exposure to stocks related to the emerging market growth story hurt performance. The resources and services super-sectors were the key detractors. In resources, there were significant declines in a number of our base metal companies. As concerns in September moved on from an isolated euro-zone crisis to a world-wide slowdown, the prices of copper, zinc and even gold declined sharply. We hold a number of stocks that mine copper, so these fell as a result. Within services, stocks that are perceived as having less operational and financial risk found favour with investors, whilst luxury goods companies sold off as investors began to link a global slowdown with a retrenchment of high-end sales. This change in the market was detrimental to the portfolio. However, we continue to hold our current positions, as neither the company specific evidence, nor indeed the broader sales trends in the industry, confirm this shift in investor perception.

Portfolio positioning
With near-term news flow driving rapid changes in market sentiment, we anticipate that volatility will continue into the final quarter of 2011. In the short term, investors will be watching policymakers closely and assessing their efforts to resolve the European crisis, support confidence in the banking sector, and bolster growth. Although valuation dispersion across sectors is currently abnormally high, creating a difficult backdrop for active fund management, this lack of fundamental differentiation ultimately creates excellent investment opportunities.
Investec Worldwide Equity Feeder comment - Jun 11 - Fund Manager Comment29 Aug 2011
Market review
Equity markets experienced a weak second quarter as macroeconomic releases pointed towards a softening in data. Fears about the future of the global recovery resurfaced just as the US terminated its second round of quantitative easing. Sovereign debt woes failed to fade from the headlines as a potential default for Greece became more likely. However, the passing of austerity measures by the Greek parliament dovetailed with verbal commitments from the European Union and financial institutions to help secure Greece's sovereign credibility. Consequently, global equity markets rallied sharply at the end of the review period. At the corporate level, although first quarter results were ahead of consensus, guidance, particularly from technology firms, was troubling. Commodity prices slid sharply off their highs as a result of profit-taking by speculators and signs of easing demand from China. In the markets, the technology, resources and financial sectors underperformed as food producers, healthcare and the tobacco sectors performed well.

Portfolio review
The Investec Worldwide Equity Feeder Fund returned 0.7% in rand terms over the quarter. The performance was driven by good stock selection balanced across the portfolio, encompassing economically sensitive industrial and consumer discretionary stocks as well as the more typically defensive consumer staples stocks, such as pharmaceuticals. The strongest returns came from owning a number of international retailers that are able to grow revenues and margins faster than expected, as well as engineering stocks that supply into the stronger oils and chemicals sectors. Equally, the portfolio performed well in pharmaceuticals as companies with strong drug pipelines were rewarded. The worst performing sector in the portfolio over the quarter was semiconductors, where forward-looking guidance was very cautious as demand for PCs and TVs has slowed.

Portfolio positioning
So far, corporate earnings have been very strong through the recovery phase of the market. Our 'regime indicator', along with leading sectors such as semiconductors, is flashing a warning signal to us that within the upcoming reporting season companies that disappoint on earnings or guidance will be dealt with harshly. The market is not in a forgiving mood, given Greece's sovereign fragility and the precarious game being played out in the US over its budget. Nevertheless, we do not believe that the market is particularly vulnerable, unless global economic indicators take a sharp downward dip.
Investec Worldwide Equity Feeder comment - Mar 11 - Fund Manager Comment16 May 2011
Market review
Equity markets continued to advance over the quarter, with the MSCI All Countries World Index returning 4.4% in dollar terms. The MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index returned 2.1% and the MSCI Asia ex Japan Index 1.2%, both in US dollars. Smaller companies performed broadly in line with the major indices; the HSBC Index returned 4.8% in US dollars. Forecasts for global economic growth have been trimmed, not least owing to short-term downgrades in Japan. The economic data, however, has been generally positive, especially in the US. Inflation data has been disappointing, due to rising commodity prices, but there is little evidence of this feeding through into core rates. Forecasts for the current year have been increased, but there is no assumption that price pressures will reverse in 2012. The European Central Bank has signalled an imminent rise in interest rates, the Bank of England is likely to follow and even the US Federal Reserve is indicating policy tightening with a further phase of quantitative easing unlikely.

Portfolio review
The Investec Worldwide Equity Feeder Fund had a good quarter, helped by excellent stock selection across the majority of sectors with only financials, and telecoms & utilities detracting from value. The services sector delivered the strongest contribution overall, with a number of consumer discretionary stocks performing well. Within resources, good stock selection in chemicals and mining, where we had exposure to specific specialist chemicals manufacturers and iron ore producers respectively, helped. In terms of those sectors that lagged, exposure to insurance stocks, following several earthquake-related natural disasters in the Pacific, detracted from value. A number of stocks in the telecoms sector, both owned and not owned, offset some of the positive performance generated overall.

Portfolio positioning
We believe equity markets are attractively valued on a historic basis and that the liquidity in financial markets is driving a new mergers and acquisition cycle as well as increasing corporate cash flows, share buy-backs and dividend levels. Input prices, particularly energy, are being absorbed to a greater extent, but companies that have the ability to raise prices and maintain margins and cash flows are likely to be the ongoing focus of investors' attention in 2011. Our assessment indicates a solid basis of fundamental analysis of individual company prospects that suggests we are in a more normalised capital markets environment than we have seen for some time. We anticipate that this can be sustained - barring abnormal geopolitical or economic events.
Investec Worldwide Equity Feeder comment - Dec 10 - Fund Manager Comment21 Feb 2011
Market review
General currency weakness in developed markets, extraordinarily supportive policy settings amongst most major economies and robust demand from Asia, boosted commodity prices. Copper, silver and palladium closed up 20.9%, 42.1% and 39.1% respectively over the last three months of the year. Gold added 8.6% in the fourth quarter to close at a record high of $1407 an ounce. Brent crude oil closed 16.6% higher in the fourth quarter and 22.7% up on the year. While both equity and bond prices saw strong gains in the third quarter, bond yields surged in the fourth as the asset class faced a raft of headwinds. Economic data showed some improvement, bond auctions proved softer, investors switched out of bonds into equities and the Irish debt crisis evolved. In addition, widespread criticism of the US Federal Reserve's continued use of unconventional policies, in the face of excessive government debt burdens, gained momentum. Global equities added 8.8% over the quarter, while global bonds lost 1.8% in US dollars, the latter cushioned by the surge in the Japanese yen. The S&P 500 Index rose 10.8%, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Index gained 12.5%, while the FTSE 100 Index in London ended the quarter 6.2% higher. Developed markets (9.1%) saw better returns than their emerging market (7.4%) counterparts. Russia (16.5%), South Africa (13.1%), and South Korea (11.4%) beat the likes of Turkey (-7.9%), India (2.2%) and China (0.7%). (All returns are in US dollars).

Portfolio review
During the fourth quarter, the Investec Worldwide Equity Feeder Fund outperformed the MSCI World Index in rand terms. Good stock selection benefited the portfolio. The strongest contribution came from the household goods and textiles sector where our holdings in niche US retailers benefited from strong sales and margin growth. Owning a number of specialist integrated circuit (chip) manufacturers, exposed to the huge growth in smartphone demand, also helped performance. The most noteworthy detraction from returns came from banks where a number of our European stocks declined, due to contagion risk from the Irish economic crisis. Our largest sector overweight positions at the end of the year were in the high beta household goods & textiles and engineering & machinery sectors, while our greatest underweight position remained in banks.

Portfolio positioning
Recent equity market gains have been primarily driven by earnings revisions rather than multiple expansions. Even with conservative forward earnings expectations for 2011, valuations remain well below their historic peak. However, due to extensive cost-cutting since 2008, corporate margins are currently very high. A key question in 2011 is how these margins will be sustained, amid competition for revenue growth and market share. A large variety of good opportunities continue to be identified by our 4Factor process and our analysts have a considerable number of strong ideas. We believe we can construct a global investment portfolio that focuses on these ideas, utilising our strong stock-picking abilities.
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