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Manager's Commentary
Marriott Dividend Growth Fund  |  South African-Equity-General
103.0658    +0.3059    (+0.298%)
NAV price (ZAR) Fri 4 Oct 2024 (change prev day)


Mandate Overview29 Jan 2021
The Marriott Dividend Growth Fund has as its primary objective an acceptable dividend yield combined with long term growth of income and capital.
Mandate Limits29 Jan 2021
None other than standard Collective Investment Schemes Control Act and the ASISA Fund Classification.
Marriott Diviidend Growth comment - Dec 20 - Fund Manager Comment29 Jan 2021
For many of us, 2020 has been a year that we would like to forget as the spread of COVID-19 forced us to change how we live our lives, to protect ourselves and others. From an investment perspective our lifestyles drive spending, spending drives business; and, business drives the economy. In 2019 alone we spent roughly 50 trillion dollars to meet our everyday needs (around 63% of global GDP). Hence, the dramatic and rapid shifts in our day-to-day lives - and consequently spending patterns - have profound investment implications.

Being forced to change how and where we spend our money understandably resulted in investment "winners" and "losers". Certain businesses and sectors befitted from the COVID-19 induced redirection of spending (e.g. internet companies like Zoom and Amazon), whereas others have suffered (e.g. shopping mall owners and airlines).

At an economic level, whilst most countries have taken a substantial knock, the recovery is also set to be uneven. Heading into the crisis SA was struggling on a number of fronts including low business and consumer confidence, corruption and weak public finances. As such, the impact of a "hard lockdown" was severe. There were also limited resources available to get the economy back on track. This has been reflected in the performance of SA-centric stocks which have failed to bounce back to the same extend as companies whose fortunes are linked to the rest of the globe (Rand hedge stocks).

Due to low yields and/or unpredictable dividend streams, Naspers/Prosus and the resource sector are filtered out of our investable universe. Hence the portfolio’s local equity component tends to be biased towards high quality, domestic focused stocks boasting the most reliable and consistent dividend track records. Unfortunately, even companies of this nature have been weighed down by SA’s dire economic situation. This is illustrated in the performance of the S&P SA dividend aristocratic index which was down approximately 14% for the year. A number of companies making up this index also cut or eliminated dividends for the very first time.

Considering the above, the Dividend Growth Fund held up well from both an income and capital perspective. Through emphasising quality and resilience in our stock selection process, and maximising direct offshore exposure, the portfolio was able to deliver the same level of income as produced in 2019 (for those living off their savings), whilst minimising capital volatility over the year.

Looking ahead to 2021 we are optimistic that the fund should continue its steady recovery. Attractive valuations suggest the bleak economic outlook has been fully discounted in the price of the high quality JSE listed companies within the portfolio. As such, it is more likely that future economic and company news will exceed expectations which should assist a bounced-back.

We expect Rand returns in excess of 10% from the fund’s offshore equity exposure (30% of the fund) over the medium to longer term, driven by robust dividend growth from some of the best and most resilient companies in the world combined with further Rand weakness.

It should also be noted that the approximate 4% yield of the portfolio is higher than money in the bank, making the Marriott Dividend Growth Fund a very useful building block for income dependent investors in the current environment.
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