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Manager's Commentary
Marriott Dividend Growth Fund  |  South African-Equity-General
103.0658    +0.3059    (+0.298%)
NAV price (ZAR) Fri 4 Oct 2024 (change prev day)


Marriott Dividend Growth comment - Sep 08 - Fund Manager Comment30 Oct 2008
2008's Q3 distribution grew by 8.31% to 41. 3833 cpu.

Future Expectations

South African equity prices and dividends have increased substantially over the last few years. The Marriott Dividend Growth Fund has grown its distributions in the last five years by an average of 17.7% per annum and its price has increased by 21.67% per annum over the same period. However, there have been significant changes in both local and global markets. Interest rates in South Africa have increased by 500 basis points since 2006. Combined, these two factors caused a significant de-rating of consumer sensitive stocks within the Financial & Industrial Index. In the last three months the fund has regained a significant portion of it losses as Investors have recognised the value of reliable and resilient income-producing businesses.

Valuations at current levels present Investors with the opportunity to invest in quality businesses at yields above their historic averages. Investors however need to be patient for this value to be realised as inflation concerns and a challenging economic outlook are likely to keep prices suppressed in the short to medium term. We have maintained our 30% futures position to reduce capital risk. However, in volatile periods investors should try and focus of the quality of the businesses they are invested in and the income streams they provide remembering that in the long term capital appreciation is ultimately a function of dividend growth. Our forecast annual growth in distributions for 2008 is between 17% and 23%.
Marriott Dividend Growth comment - Jun 08 - Fund Manager Comment25 Aug 2008
2008's Q2 distribution grew by 4.8% to 38.2076 cpu. This growth is well above our expected medium term growth rate of 8 to 10% per annum.

Future Expectations
South African equity prices and dividends have increased substantially over the last few years. The Marriott Dividend Growth Fund has grown its distributions in the last five years by an average of 17.7% per annum and its price has increased by 20.7% per annum over the same period. However, there have been significant changes in both local and global markets. Interest rates in South Africa have increased by 500 basis points since 2006, and there is a strong possibility of further interest rate increases as there are no signs yet of inflation being contained within the 3% to 6% band. These two factors combined have caused a significant de-rating of consumer sensitive stocks within the Financial and Industrial Index. Investors in the Marriott Dividend Growth Fund have been partially protected by the 30% futures position held within the fund. Valuations at current levels are attractive once again, however, Investors need to be patient for this value to be realised as inflation concerns and a deteriorating economic outlook are likely to keep prices suppressed in the short to medium term. We have maintained our futures position to reduce capital risk. In volatile periods however, Investors should try and focus of the quality of the businesses they are invested in and the income streams they provide - remembering that in the long term capital appreciation is ultimately a function of dividend growth. Our forecast annual growth in distributions for 2008 is between 17% and 23%.
Marriott Dividend Growth comment - Mar 08 - Fund Manager Comment30 May 2008
2008's Q1 distribution grew by 6.7% to 36.4624 cpu. This growth is well above our expected medium term growth rate of 8 to 10% per annum.

Future Expectations
South African equity prices and dividends have increased substantially over the last few years. The Marriott Dividend Growth Fund has grown its distributions in the last five years by an average of 17.7% per annum and its price has increased by 20.7% per annum over the same period. However, there have been significant changes in both local and global markets. Interest rates in South Africa have increased by 450 basis points since 2006, and there is a strong possibility of further interest rate increases as there are no signs yet of inflation being contained within the 3% to 6% band. There has been significant volatility in global markets as a result of the sub-prime loans crisis in the US, which has impacted local markets by an increase in volatility. With these developments, and a possible slowdown in consumer consumption, certain sectors within the JSE appear to be expensive and some have yields now higher than their long-term average. As a result, we have adjusted our portfolio to decrease holdings in securities whose dividend growth is likely to come under pressure and to hold securities that we feel will be able to continue producing reliable dividend growth in a tougher economic climate. Our exposure to the financial sector (with particular emphasis on the major banks) has increased from 25% to 45% as the dividend yields are in excess of their long-term average. We continue to be concerned about the possibility of further weakening in the market and have maintained a futures position to the value of 30% of the fund in order to reduce capital risk. The futures position has no impact on the dividend streams from the underlying securities. Our forecast annual growth in distributions for 2008 is between 17% and 23%.
Marriott Dividend Growth comment - Dec 07 - Fund Manager Comment17 Mar 2008
2007’s Q4 distribution grew by 5% to 34.151 cpu. This growth is well above our expected medium term growth rate of 8 - 10% per annum.

Future Expectations
South African Equity prices and dividends have increased substantially over the last few years. The Marriott Dividend Growth Fund has grown its distributions in the last five years by an average of 17.7% per annum and has also increased its price by 20.7% per annum over the same period.

However, there have been significant changes in both local and global markets. Interest rates in South Africa have increased by 400 basis points since 2006 and there is a strong possibility of further interest rate hikes as we haven’t seen any signs of inflation being contained in the 3% - 6% band. There has been significant volatility in global markets as a result of the sub-prime loans crisis in the US, which has impacted local markets by an increase in volatility.

With these developments and a possible slowdown in consumer consumption the JSE looks expensive. We feel a conservative stance is appropriate and have a futures position to the value of 30% of the fund in order to reduce capital risk. The futures position has no impact on the dividend streams from the underlying securities. Our forecast annual growth in distributions for 2008 is between 25% and 29%.
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