2019 was a rollercoaster ride for most investors, understandably causing anxiety and fatigue for many. After posting a gain of just about 12% in the first half of the year, The JSE AllShare(Total Return) Index then lost in excess of 4.5% over the third quarter, only to regain about as much in the last quarter. The anxiety thus from the ups and downs, and fatigue given the market has not made much progress over the past 5 years.

Importantly, it did produce a return of 12.05% for the year, which is better than Bonds (ALBI + 10.32%), Cash(Stefi +7.29%) and substantially more than Property(JSAPY +1.93%). One can also not ignore though that this was from a low base, as 2018 saw the market lose 8.53% of it’s value.

There were some returns to be had Offshore, but the intense volatility there comes from the Rand Exchange rate which dominates returns. Once again the Rand, if measured to the US Dollar, traded in a massive band where it started the year at R14.40/$ and ended at R14.00/$, whilst trading as weak as R15.47/$ at times, and as strong as R13.25/$ at others, a spread of roughly 17%.

Stories influencing markets, from a Global perspective, mostly surrounded the constant seesaw in negotiations to implement Brexit, and effectively see the United Kingdom leave the European Union. From the U.S, constant media (formal and social) surrounded trade talks with China, and sanctions being implemented and reversed again. This caused sizeable moves in markets, especially in Emerging economies. Towards the end of the year, the focus moved towards allegations against the President, which eventually led to his impeachment. At the stage of writing this, an outcome has not been reached as to his fate yet.

Locally, focus was on weak economic data and further ratings agency downgrades on the back of failing parastatal entities, all begging the question of whether Ramaphosa has been doing anything effective in trying to revive the economy. The data certainly does not suggest it, and no one prominent has been held accountable for any of the corruption that he was voted in on promises to resolve.

Even at this background, it is always darkest before dawn, and our portfolios remain to be neutral to slightly overweight on growth assets, with the rational that we need to participate in the next bull run in order to stand a chance of meeting return targets. We still await a catalyst to entice global capital to return, but he timing of this remain uncertain. You can currently buy quality companies at decent prices, so trying to time the market is not worth the risk of missing out.