MARKET PERFORMANCE

Developed-market central-bank policy easing has contributed to the longest-ever economic expansion - over 10 years. Global monetary policy easing reached new highs as the universe of negative-yielding bonds jumped to a record $13tn, gold to six-year highs and the S&P500 to all-time highs. Both the US Fed and ECB vowed to cut rates if necessary. The Bank of Japan has continued to ease monetary policy, because, on the back of trade tensions, global-manufacturing confidence indices have fallen into contraction, Citi's Global Economic Surprise Index has experienced the longest period of disappointing economic data on record and the Brent crude oil price dropped 20%. Amid escalating disputes, the World Bank downgraded its global growth outlook to the weakest pace in three years, forecasting 2.6% this year. The largest threat to the economic outlook is U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and tech wars, the latter being of particular concern, as 27% of the S&P500 Tech sector's revenue is exposed to China. Trump has an incentive to keep the market buoyant with 2020 elections around the corner, but the risk of miscalculation is high when using untested tools. Trump said that his meeting with China's President Xi Jinping at the G20 leaders' summit in Osaka went far better than expected and that he would not increase tariffs. He added, however, that he was "in no hurry" to cut a trade deal.

South Africa's Q1 GDP fell the most in a decade, down 3.2% on the back of loadshedding issues. Seven of nine areas of the economy are in decline: agriculture declined a massive 13%, with farmers still unsure of their property rights, and mining was down 10% on power concerns. The rand lost considerable ground, breaking above R15 to the USD, and the yield curve rose to its steepest levels on record in response to a statement by ANC Secretary-General Ace Magashule that the organisation had decided to change the Reserve Bank mandate and begin "quantity" easing. The ANC's economic transformation head, Enoch Godongwana, SARB governor Lesetja Kganyago, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni and President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed that the party would not seek to nationalise the central bank nor expand its mandate. The South African Chamber of Commerce expressed concern that the government is "at war with itself". The debt market is concerned about continuing to fund state-owned enterprises, after Ramaphosa announced more front-end loaded support for Eskom in his State of the Nation address. Inflation rose to 4.5% in May, but the SARB's forecasting model suggests there is room for interest rate cuts.
The IHS Markit US manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) declined to 50.1, its lowest level since September 2009, and consumer confidence is at two-year lows. The Fed cut its inflation forecast and suggested a rate cut could happen as early as July unless trade tensions and economic data improve. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell below 2% as US rates markets moved to price in roughly three rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2019. This aggressive move is normally only associated with an economic recession, but the Fed is changing the reaction function that will encourage an inflation overshoot.

Eurozone inflation expectations plunged to a record low (1.1% on the five-year forward rate) as investors worry that the economy is slipping into "Japanification", an inescapable period of stagnant growth and low interest rates. Unsatisfied with the market's view, Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, announced possible interest rates cuts and a fresh round of bond purchases. The TLTRO-III stimulus programme will start in September, and tax cuts have been announced in some of the major economies.

After three years of political deadlock over Brexit, the ruling Conservative Party is picking a new leader. Boris Johnson is the favourite to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May, and the new prime minister should be in place by the end of July. Johnson vowed to deliver Brexit with or without a deal. Brussels has underlined that it will not reopen Britain's EU withdrawal deal, stressing that the next prime minister should honour the deal that Theresa May brokered.

China's central bank added 500 billion yuan ($72 billion) to the financial system, the second-largest injection on record. The financial support was required after the government's first seizure of a bank in more than two decades drove up funding costs. The Chinese services sector is holding up well despite a slowing manufacturing sector (Chinese factory output slowed to its weakest pace on record), and infrastructure investment is being encouraged in order to ensure growth does not slow beyond the government's "reasonable range".

India's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year, to 5.75%, the lowest level in nine years, and signalled the possibility of further easing in a bid to support growth. However, the central bank suffered a blow to its credibility after the resignation of deputy governor Viral Acharya.

Russia's central bank cut the key interest rate and hinted at future reductions. Australia's central bank cut interest rates to a record low of 1.25%.

Fitch and Moody downgraded Mexico's credit rating against the backdrop of rising trade tensions. Fortunately, President Trump "indefinitely suspended" his plans for U.S. tariffs on Mexico, removing the threat of a 5% tariff on Mexican imports.

Turkey's opposition party, the Republican People's Party, secured 54.2% of the vote in a re-run Istanbul mayoral election, striking a blow to President Tayyip Erdogan.


FUND PERFORMANCE

In June the ECB announced a pushing back of its first rate hike post the 2011 euro debt crisis until at least mid-2020, citing continued geopolitical uncertainties, protectionism threats and vulnerabilities in emerging markets. ECB President Mario Draghi offered to pay banks to borrow cash from the central bank and pass it on to households and firms. Meanwhile, the Fed held its rates steady while leaving the door slightly open to future rate cuts (with equal votes favouring one cut this year versus maintaining the status quo, and one outlier vote wanting a hike). The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, indicated that some officials believe the case for accommodation has strengthened.

In South Africa, President Ramaphosa delivered his SONA, acknowledging soft growth prospects for this year following a dismal Q1 GDP. He reaffirmed the SARB’s constitutional mandate to protect the value of our currency in the interest of balanced and sustainable growth. These factors strengthen the likelihood that the SARB will cut interest rates in its upcoming meetings, which should provide a positive boost for business confidence.

The Fund strategy continues to soundly navigate these volatile markets, accessing attractive yields and protecting investor capital through the cycles.

Markets were driven higher over the first quarter thanks to improved support from central banks and governments despite the downward trajectory of economic growth. China has surprised to the upside with fiscal stimulus, while the Fed has stopped raising interest rates, reduced quantitative tightening and shifted its monetary policy towards an average inflation target. The ECB announced another round of quantitative easing, and emerging-market central banks are able to accommodate lower interest rates due to stronger currencies. The recovery in risky assets year-to-date reflects expectations of economic green shoots in the second half of the year thanks to this additional liquidity; however, bond markets are disagreeing with this view and are extrapolating current disappointing growth to the second half of the year. The US yield curve inverted, suggesting a recession is imminent, while the German 10- year Bund yield went negative for the first time in three years. Meanwhile, emerging market currencies are pricing another crisis, following the Turkish Lira's plunge.

Real gross fixed capital formation contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter in 2018 across all sectors which bodes poorly for future growth. The RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) plunged to levels last seen during 2009's global recession. Confidence was further weakened as President Ramaphosa confirmed that the ANC will nationalise the South African Reserve Bank. Meanwhile, NERSA's tariff increases, the lack of tax relief in the budget, higher oil prices, and renewed stage four load shedding have all contributed to low consumer confidence. CPI remained lacklustre at 4.1% in March and the SARB kept rates on hold. Despite the higher tariffs, Eskom's liquidity position remains dire and it is the biggest risk to SA's economic growth and credit rating, although Moody's kept South Africa's rating outlook unchanged at stable. On the stock front, Aspen fell over 50% intraday after disappointing results with spiralling debt the main concern.

The Fed delivered a significantly more dovish outcome at its March meeting than expected, with the committee downgrading growth and inflation projections in line with recent data. US employment showed only slight growth, manufacturing slowed more than expected and consumer confidence dropped well below expectations. US consumer prices experienced the smallest increase in nearly two-and-ahalf years. As a result, the Fed effectively called an end to its hiking cycle with no hikes forecast this year. In addition, the committee announced that quantitative tightening will be lowered in May before being halted completely in October, effectively ending US quantitative tightening. The Fed is also willing to tolerate an overshoot of their inflation goal. However, despite this, the gap between the three-month treasury bill rate and the benchmark 10-year yield inverted for the first time since 2007. An inversion of that portion of the yield curve is seen as a reliable warning of a potential recession within the next year or two. The US trade deficit reached a 10-year high in 2018 on record imports from China, which continues to highlight the risks of the trade talks which are set to continue into April.

March's Eurozone manufacturing index fell to a near six-year low and investor confidence remained negative for the fourth consecutive month. The ECB downgraded growth and inflation forecasts and in recognition of the poor outlook, announced dovish policy changes. Rates are now expected to stay unchanged throughout 2019 and a third series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III) will be implemented.

Theresa May put forward a stripped-down version of her twice-defeated Brexit divorce deal to a vote in parliament, however, lawmakers rejected May's Brexit deal for a third time. May had announced she would resign if her deal went through. As a result, the EU's extension of the Article 50 period will only run until 12th April. Britain now needs to convince the EU it has an alternative path or exit without a deal, and the UK parliament's indicative votes process is set to start on the 1st of April.

The composite PMI rose to 53.8 indicating acceleration in activity. However, geopolitics remains a concern as tensions increased between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir region, after an Indian MiG-21 fighter jet crashed near Pakistan. The pilot, who had safely ejected before the crash, was later paraded on Pakistani television. India heads for national elections in April.

Turkey entered its first recession in a decade at the end of last year and the Turkish central bank's net reserves slid $6.3 billion in the first two weeks of March to $28.5 billion, raising speculation that it was intervening to support the currency. As a result, the Lira sold off and the cost to borrow liras overnight rose above 1000% as Turkey's government attempted to support the currency. The Turkish lira fell after President Erdogan's ruling party lost control of key cities during the local elections on the 31st of March.

Core Machine Orders fell -5.4%, far below expectations, while output at Japanese manufacturers fell at the fastest pace in almost three years. The Bank of Japan held its monetary policy steady and predicted the economy is likely to continue its current moderate expansion.

China's industrial production grew at the slowest pace in nearly two decades in the first two months of the year and China's exports tumbled 20%, the biggest fall in three years. China lowered its official goal for economic growth in 2019 to a range of 6 - 6.5%, however, it announced several growth supportive measures, including US$298.31 billion in tax cuts. In addition, China said it will invest 800 billion yuan in railway construction and 1.8 trillion yuan to build roads and waterway projects. Fiscal policy is increasing steadily, including local bonds to the general public deficit, the total is a massive 6.5% of GDP. Initial March data indicates domestic demand is improving on the back of policy support.

Oil prices hit their highest levels of 2019 after OPEC committed itself to further output cuts and sanctions on Venezuela and Iran reduced supply.


FUND PERFORMANCE

The US Fed kept rates unchanged and Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, indicated low US inflation to be a significant challenge. ECB sentiment is similar, with a mixed bag of EU economic data and inflation also on the soft side. The World Bank is cautioned that downside risks are becoming more acute. The IMF has cut the global growth outlook to the lowest since the financial crisis due to the bleaker outlook in the majority of the world’s most advanced economies.

On the home front, our MPC kept rates unchanged. Challenges exist within emerging markets the world over, and while uncertainties abound, South Africa has maintained its Moody’s investment grade rating at Baa3 with a stable outlook. There has also been recent support by foreign investors for South Africa’s government bonds, boosted by the dovish international tone and relatively attractive yields.

The Fund strategy of accessing attractive yields in volatile markets and protecting capital has been well supported through a healthy supply of investment opportunities presented by well-run and conservative corporates within the South African economy.