The World Bank reduced its growth forecasts in June due to the trade conflict between the US and China, given that between them the two countries account for more than a third of global economic activity. Global growth is now forecast at just 2.6% for 2019 from 2.9% previously forecast. Global trade is slowing, and countries directly exposed to the trade war are showing a marked deceleration. While a handshake deal between the US and China took some heat out of the trade war, existing tariffs look set to stay in place. The Fed has turned sharply dovish as a result of sluggishly low inflation, threats to the growth outlook due to weaker global trade and geopolitical tensions from the trade war. The US bond market continues to price in aggressive interest rate cuts over the next 18 months and was composed by the Fed’s decision not to cut in June. Locally, South Africa’s GDP posted its biggest quarterly contraction since 2009 in the first quarter of this year, printing a -3.2% quarter-on-quarter versus 1.4% growth in the previous quarter. The rand relative to the dollar appreciated some 3.24% in June as risk sentiment improved amid expectations of looser monetary policy in the US and the Eurozone.

The local equity market followed global markets higher, and the MSCI World index delivered some 3.25%. Furthermore, the MSCI EM index marginally underperformed its developed market counterpart, delivering some 2.94%. Underscoring yields moving lower in the month is a sense of cautiousness following the dovish pivot by a number of central banks in recent times. As such, the JP Morgan Global Aggregate index lagged risk assets and delivered -1.16% as the currency strengthened. Given the risk-on month, emerging market bonds fared better than their developed market counterparts, delivering some 0.80%. The local equity market followed global markets higher, and the ALSI delivered 4.78%. The strong rally in the local market was largely driven by the Resi-20 index delivering some 10.28%. The ALBI lagged its risky counterparts and delivered 2.27%, with the 7-12 year area of the yield curve rallying some 2.70%. Furthermore, inflation-linked bonds underperformed their fixed coupon counterparts, delivering 0.13%. Given the risk-on environment the local property market delivered some 2.20%. Local cash delivered 0.59% for the month of June.

The objective of the Sentio Sanlam Collective Investments HIKMA Shariah Balanced Fund will be to provide long term capital growth while preserving capital with a reasonable level of income that complies with Shariah (Islamic Law) and the standards prescribed by the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI).

As we move into the final quarter of the year, it seems evident that the US market needs to cool, or the rest of the world needs to do some catching up. Though global growth is still relatively resilient, inflation risk is clearly on the rise, driven by higher commodity prices and tight labour markets. The most recent global manufacturing PMIs are consistent with a healthy underlying growth rate, but leading indicators of economic activity suggest that global growth has peaked, and with it earnings growth. Despite this positive backdrop, investors continued fretting about emerging market assets, as the recent currency crises in Turkey and Argentina fuelled worries about contagion. Locally, President Ramaphosa announced a stimulus package, which is intended to revitalise the economy. Also, the SA Reserve Bank decided to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.5%, amidst the local economy unexpectedly contracting for a second consecutive quarter in Q2, largely because of a sharp drop in agricultural output.

As the rand strengthened some 3.53% in September, the MSCI World index returned -2.87% in rands. The MSCI EM index underperformed its develop market counterparts and delivered some -3.93% in rands, largely driven by weaker Asian markets. As developed market bond yields rose, the JP Morgan Global Aggregate delivered some -4.20% in rands. Emerging market bonds fared better, outperforming their developed market counterparts, delivering some -0.72% in rands. The recent dislocations should lead to value entry points opening up in some quality and value parts of equity markets. But, as monetary policy tightens in developed markets, the ability of emerging markets to fend off inflationary pressures is being tested. Furthermore, the global listed property market derated, and delivered some -5.37% in rands.

The ALSI underperformed its developed and emerging market peers in September largely driven by the stronger rand, and delivered some -4.17% in rands. The Indi-25 and Fin-15 indices delivered some -8.07% and -1.96% respectively in rands, while the Resi-20 index inched 0.34% higher in rands. The SA 10-year bond yield weakened during the course of the month. However, as US bond yields rose, the differential between emerging market bond yields and the US bond yield narrowed generally as the broader emerging markets experienced a relief rally. As such, the ALBI delivered a muted 0.30% in rands. Over the month inflation-linked bond yields were largely unchanged and the asset class is now offering an attractive inflation plus 3% virtually across the yield curve. Inflation-linked bonds outperformed their sovereign counterparts, and delivered some 0.43% in rands. The SAPY delivered some -2.60% in rands as the dividend yield pushed higher. Domestic cash returned 0.57% in rands for the month.