Prescient Wealth Balanced Fof Comment - Sep 19 - Fund Manager Comment17 Oct 2019
Global equities (+2.1% in US dollars) recovered August's losses, led higher by Japan (+4.0%) on solid earnings and Europe (+2.7%) on lower interest rates and a central bank stimulus surprise. The US (+1.7%) aslo rose on the second Fed interest rate cut in two months, while emerging markets (+1.9%) also advanced. Developed market bond yields were mostly unchanged after expected interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. US markets have priced in a further quarter-point interest rate cut in 2019 despite more hawkish Fed comments.
The oil price (+0.6%) ended slightly higher after initially spiking following a missile strike on a Saudi refinery generating 5% of world supply - the price fell back through month-end despite escalating US/Iran tensions with output expected to resume quickly.
The FTSE/JSE Capped All Share Index (+0.3% in rands) rose as kind comments from Moody's pushed financials (+3.5%) higher - industrials (-0.7%) fell and resources (-1.1%) were dragged lower by a sharply weaker gold mining (-14.9%) sector as precious metals fell on improved risk sentiment.
The All Bond Index (+0.5%) was marginally up as the South African Reserve Bank kept interest rates steady. The excessively steep yield curve provided a buying opportunity for options on longer dated government bonds given the rising probability of a shift down in long-term rates.
The rand (+0.3% vs he US dollar) advanced strongly intra-month but weakened latterly. SA recorded a surprisingly robust trade surplus in August on improved commodity exports.