World Economy

US Federal Reserve officials scaled back their projected interest rate increases this year to zero and said they would end the drawdown of the central bank’s bond holdings in September after holding policy steady. The S&P500 index closed the quarter 13% better than it started and within just 5% of all-time highs set ahead of the September meltdown. Investors are banking on a slowing in US interest rate and a mature solution to the threatened trade war between the US and China. The Chinese PMI index rose to a six-month high of 50.5 in March, ahead of economists’ forecasts. Its recovery will ease fears that China’s economy was losing steam after the country posted 6.4% growth for the final three months of 2018 - its slowest expansion in a decade. UK Prime Minister Theresa May said she would ask the EU for a further delay for Brexit beyond April 12 to give her time to sit down with the opposition Labour Party in a bid to break the impasse over Britain’s departure from the bloc.

SA Economy

The South African Reserve Bank left the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.75% as the Monetary Policy Committee indicated that there was little evidence of demand-side pressures to the economy. The JSE All Share Index ended up 7% for the quarter. Moody's released a credit opinion on SA in which it said SA's economic and fiscal performance was in line with other countries that had a Baa3 rating ( the lowest investment-grade ranking). Petrol will increase by R1.34 per litre from April. Also kicking in is the General Fuel Levy, which rises by 5c/l and the Road Accident Fund Levy, by 15c/l. South Africans will also pay 9.41% more for electricity at the end of April, as announced by NERSA. The seasonally-adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers' Index fell for a third consecutive month in March, a survey showed. SA’s trade balance improved in February to +R4 billion, after a very substantial deficit of -R13 billion in January 2019. During March, exports of vehicles surged R8.5 billion while machinery imports declined by R4.2 billion. In the first quarter of 2019 the new car market was down 8.7% compared with 2018. In March, SA new vehicle exports leapt 23.7% from the corresponding month in 2018.

Trends and Opportunities

- The consensus US GDP growth estimate for 2019 is currently 2.4%.
- SA headline inflation is expected to average 4.8% in 2019, before increasing to 5.3% in 2020 and moderating to 4.7% in 2021.
- SARB revised down its growth forecast for 2019 to 1.3% from 1.7%.
"The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists." ... -Benjamin Graham, Author of The Intelligent Investor.

The commentary gives the views of the portfolio manager at the time of writing. Any forecasts or commentary included in this document are not guaranteed to occur.