Nedgroup Investments Stable comment - Sep 12 - Fund Manager Comment25 Oct 2012
Against deteriorating economic data, monetary authorities across the globe took coordinated action with direct cash injections into the system. In fact, the ECB effectively promised that they would "do whatever it takes" while the US Federal Reserve surprised the markets with their own bazooka option of injecting $40 billion per month into the mortgage backed security market, until the recovery is firmly established. Intra-month, there was angst that Germany would be able to derail the ECB bond purchases plan although this proved not to be the case.
Only time will tell whether these aggressive strategies will prove correct, but the substantial money on the sideline wasn't prepared to wait to find out, jumping back into the market on the theory that you never fight the Fed.
Locally, GDP growth continued at a moderate pace with a rebound in mining activity offsetting slower household expenditure and industrial production growth rates, while government related projects drove the acceleration of fixed capital formation growth. SA's current account deficit weakened to almost 6% of GDP. However, weak export volumes and prices, together with rising services payments (dividends and interest) to foreign investors, were fully covered by net foreign investments into the domestic bond and equity markets.
The FTSE/JSE ALSI followed major global markets higher, rising 7% during the quarter and 1.6% up for the month, while basic resources were up 6.2% for the month, but continued to lag year-to-date.
Policy uncertainty remains a key risk as investment spending has slowed globally pending the resolution of the US presidential election and potential fiscal tightening, the European Union leaders' attempt to satisfy their voters, while still holding the union together and the transition of the leadership in China.
Although economic data is only expected to improve meaningfully next year, shares remain an attractive medium- to long-term proposition based on forward valuations. We shouldn't attempt to pick the turning point perfectly, but to rather retain a significant exposure to well-managed, high quality companies. Since we continue to believe that the rand will weaken over time, we will continue to retain a full weighting to international assets, and increase the allocation to global equity markets in particular when opportunities presents themselves.