Novare IP Capital Preserver FoF comment - Sep 12 - Fund Manager Comment29 Nov 2012
The domestic economic landscape was tainted by continued strike action from mine workers during the month which started to spill over to other sectors. Although the Lonmin strike was ended, management had to succumb to massive salary increase demands which set a dangerous president to wage negotiations at other companies. At month-end, Moody's cut South Africa's credit rating by one notch, citing the government's inability to deal with socio-economic stresses and economic problems as reasons for the move. The petrol price experienced its biggest monthly gain in more than 3 years when pump prices rose by 93 cents at the start of the month, putting disposable household expenditure under pressure.
The resources sector benefitted the most from the global stimulus measures, rising as much as 12% at one stage before retreating on the back of widening wild strikes at mines. The sector closed 5.7% higher for the month. It helped to push the FTSE/JSE All Share Index 1.6% higher during September and the Index experienced a strong quarterly gain of 7.3% for the third quarter. The financial sector ended the month flat while industrial shares lost 0.5%.
The Global financial markets gained on the back of the initial good news, but concerns mounted towards month-end as to whether Spain will request a bailout and economic data which surprised to the downside. The MSCI Global Equity Index gained 2.5% during the month, but developed market share performance was overshadowed by that of developing markets as the MSCI Emerging Market Index gained a massive 5.8%. European equity markets had a strong performance whilst the Japanese Nikkei Index underperformed relatively, even though the Japanese central bank also announced further stimulus measures. The Japanese measures were pale compared to the Fed's stimulus.
Novare IP Capital Preserver FoF comment - Jun 12 - Fund Manager Comment26 Jul 2012
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index reached an all-time high during the month, before it pulled back ahead of the European Union's 19th summit at month-end. The All Share Index still managed to end 1.9% higher due to strong gains within the financial and industrial sectors which rose by 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. The resources sector gained 1.3%. Economic data continue to point towards slowing economic conditions with business and household consumption slowing down and the leading economic indicator dipping into negative territory. Retail sales growth slowed dramatically, although vehicle sales have held up. Business confidence has also deteriorated.
The Reserve Bank's Quarterly Bulletin was released during the month, indicating growing imbalances within the economy. The current account deficit widened sharply to 4.9% of GDP - the widest it has been in years. The widening was as a result of exports slowing down faster than domestic imports. The deficit was easily financed by foreign portfolio flows, but it will put pressure on the rand going forward. While domestic household debt levels remain high, private sector credit extension continued to grow at a healthy pace.
Global equity markets recovered during June after the severe sell-off in May. The recovery was hesitant, however, due to the on-going uncertainties within Europe. The Greek elections resulted in a narrow victory for the pro-austerity New Democracy which was able to form a coalition government, allowing the country further time within the Eurozone. At the same time, the health of the Spanish banks deteriorated to such a degree that a €100bn bailout package was requested. Cyprus joined the choir and became the 5th European country to ask for a rescue package. The 19th European Union summit, which was held at the end of the month, surprised expectations by announcing more decisive measures to address the on-going crisis, but it was short on detail.