Investec Namibian Managed comment - Oct 04 - Fund Manager Comment03 Dec 2004
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia follows the house-view asset allocation, within the constraints of pension fund prudential requirements, and a minimum investment of 35% in Namibian assets.
Most global equity markets were positive during October. Developed equity markets, as measured by the MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital Index), gained 2.5% in US$-terms during October, while Emerging markets as a group increased by 2.4%. Only 3 out of the 23 developed countries, measured by the MSCI, posted negative returns; in the case of the Emerging markets it was only 5 out of 26. Bonds also posted positive returns in US$-terms of between 1.6% (Emerging-) and 2.9% (Developed markets).
However, these positive returns from international assets were eroded by a very strong Rand. It appreciated by 5.5% against the US Dollar during October - the best performing Emerging Market currency in the month. Hence, the international component of the Investec Managed Fund Namibia made a negative contribution to overall performance.
Not surprisingly, given the strength in the currency, the South African equity market returned a negative 0.6% in Rand terms over October, driven by a sharp weakening in the resources sector which fell by 8.7%. The fund's underweight exposure to resource counters in general and zero exposure to gold shares specifically, was therefore highly beneficial.
Our overweight position in financial shares benefited from a positive return of 2.7% from this sector. All the financial sub-sectors (banks, insurance, etc.) were positive, except for life insurance which registered -1% (here the fund is underweight). The fund maintains a relatively large exposure to banks.
Industrials were the star performers of the month, posting a return of 6.3%. Here the fund was also overweight and benefited from the likes of SABMiller (up 3.4%), Edgars (up 13.2%), Ellerines (up 11.9%) and Truworths International (up 9.3%).
SA Bonds returned 2.2% over October and the fund's SA bond investments performed in line with the market.
In Namibia the NSX Overall index lost 3.6% in the month of October mainly due to the 12.6% fall in the share price of Anglo American and weakness in the price of Transhex. The fund was (and remains) underweight resources and overweight financials.
The NSX Local Index lost 0.8% in the month due to weakness in its major constituents - Namibian Breweries and FNB Namibia.
Namibian bonds returned 2.7% in the month and cash 0.7%. Against this background the Investec Managed Fund Namibia posted a return of 2.13% in October, bringing the total return for the last twelve months to 22.9%.
Against the current macroeconomic backdrop of low interest rates, low inflation and a strong currency, one should be overweight Industrials and Financials. Therefore, we maintain this stance in the portfolio.
Investec Namibian Managed comment - Sep 04 - Fund Manager Comment02 Nov 2004
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia follows the house-view asset allocation, within the constraints of pension fund prudential requirements, and a minimum investment of 35% in Namibian assets.
Most global equity markets struggled during the third quarter. The strong performance of local markets was mainly attributable to the weakening of the Rand/N$ due to the 50bp cut in interest rates during August 2004. The JSE returned 17.4% for the quarter, while the NSX
overall returned 19.9% for the quarter. The leading performer for the quarter was Resources (23.7%) followed by Cyclical Services (17.3%) and General Industrials (17.1%). The leading performer for September was Financials (9.5%) followed by Cyclical Services (9.3%) and Cyclical Consumer Goods (7.6%). All sectors except (-3.6%) returned positively year to date.
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia maintained an overweight stance in Financials and had a relatively large exposure to Banks and Mining Finance. Banks (18.7% for 3Q04 and 15% for September 2004) outperformed both the JSE, but Mining (-26.7% for 3Q04 and - 19.5% for September 2004) underperformed both the JSE and the NSX during this period. Banks proved to be an excellent investment for the last 12 months posting a 38.3% return, while Mining returned - 52.0% for the same period.
In the Namibian portfolio, where the Resource Sector (Anglo American Plc accounts for nearly 50% of the NSX market capitalization) and the Financial Sector (more than 30% of the NSX market capitalisation) dominate, the fund retained substantial exposures to Anglo American and Financials.
The fund also had around 15% exposure to bonds and an 18% exposure to cash. Bonds returned 3.2% while cash did only 2.1% for the quarter. Furthermore the fund has a 15% offshore exposure. The N$/Rand weakened against both the US Dollar and Euro during the quarter. This had a positive impact on the performance of the fund's international investment.
Against this background the Namibia Managed Fund posed a return of 10.5% for the quarter and 26.8% for the year ending September 2004. Following the 500bp cut during 2003, Namibian prime rates were cut by 25bp during August 2004. We believe the lower rates shall continue to influence the economy positively as interest rates are currently at low levels. Against this background one should be overweight Industrials and Financials. We are overweight in both these sectors. We shall continue to favour Financials and Industrials, although we have lightened our exposure to industrials earlier this year, by taking profits.
Investec Namibian Managed comment - Jun 04 - Fund Manager Comment28 Jul 2004
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia follows the house-view asset allocation, within the constraints of pension fund prudential requirements, and a minimum investment of 35% in Namibian assets. Most global equity markets were flat during 2Q04. The local financial markets struggled and the JSE returned -6.5% for the quarter, while the NSX overall returned -7.3% for the quarter. The leading performer for June 2004 was Basic industries (3.31%) followed by Cyclical Services (2.67%) and Financials (6.8%). The leading performer for 2Q04 was Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods (5.1%) followed by Basic Industries (5.1%) and Cyclical Services (4.1%). All sectors except resources (-13.7%) and IT (-8.7%) returned positively year to date.
Due to the large weighting of Resources in the market capitalization of the JSE, the JSE All Share index posted a return of -1.2% for the first half of 2004.
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia maintained an overweight stance in Financials and had a relatively large exposure to Banks and Mining Finance. Banks (2.4% for June 04 and 6.25% for 2Q04) outperformed both the JSE and NSX, but Mining (-18.2% for June 04 and 28.6% for 2Q04) underperformed both the JSE and the NSX during this period. Banks proved to be an excellent investment for the last 12 months posting a 35.0% return, while Mining returned -29.4% for the same period.
In the Namibian portfolio, where the Resource Sector (Anglo American Plc accounts for nearly 50% of the NSX market capitalization) and the Financial Sector (more than 30% of the NSX market capitalisation) dominate, the fund retained substantial exposures to Anglo America Financials.
The fund also had around 15% exposure to bonds and an 18% exposure to cash. Bonds returned -0.1% while cash did only 2.2% for 2Q04. Furthermore the fund has a 15% offshore exposure. The N$/Rand strengthened 3.2% against both the Dollar and Euro during 2Q04. This had a negative impact on the performance of the fund's international investment.
Against this background the Namibia Managed Fund posed a return of -0.2% for 2Q04 and 18.4% for the year ending June 2004.
The Namibian prime rates were cut by 500bp during 2003. The lower rates have already worked their way through the economy and we believe they shall continue to do so as interest rates are currently at low levels.
Against this background one should be overweight Industrials and Financials. We are overweight in both these sectors. We shall continue to favour Financials and Industrials, although we have lightened our exposure to industrials earlier this year, by virtue of having taken profits.
Investec Namibian Managed comment - May 04 - Fund Manager Comment24 Jun 2004
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia follows the house-view asset allocation, within the constraints of pension fund prudential requirements, and a minimum investment of 35% in Namibian assets.
Returns of the most International markets were flat during May 2004. The NSX overall JSE all share indices followed suite. The NSX overall returned 0.0% and the JSE all share returned 0.3% for May 2004. The leading performer for May 2004 was Non-Cyclical Services (3.1%) followed by Financials (1.3%) and General Industrials (0.5%). IT (- 10.1%), which did in excess of 5% during April 2004, led the negative performers, followed by Cyclical Consumer Goods (-3.3%) Cyclical Services (-1.8%).
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia maintained an overweight stance in Financials and had a relatively large exposure to Banks and Mining Finance. For the second month in a row Banks (5.6%) outperformed both the JSE and NSX but Mining (0.8%) just marginally outperformed both the JSE and the NSX during May 2004.
In the Namibian portfolio, where the Resource Sector (Anglo American Plc accounts for nearly 50% of the NSX market capitalization) and the Financial Sector (more than 30% of the NSX market capitalisation) dominate, the fund retained substantial exposures to Anglo America Financials.
The fund also had around 15% exposure to bonds and a 18% exposure to cash. Bonds returned -0.2% while cash did 0.7% for May 04. Furthermore the fund has a 15% offshore exposure. The N$/Rand strengthened against the major currencies during May 2004 which in turn negatively influenced the performance of the international investment.
Against this background the Namibia Managed Fund posed a return of -0.1% during the month May 04.
The Namibian prime rates were cut by 500bp during 2003. The lower rates have already worked their way through the economy. Although higher inflation expectations should push up interest rates in 2H04, we believe, for the time being lower rates shall continue to influence consumer spending positively. Against this background one should be overweight Industrials and Financials. We are overweight in both these sectors. We will continue to favour Financials and Industrials, although we have taken some profit by lightening our exposure to industrials.
Investec Namibian Managed comment - Mar 04 - Fund Manager Comment10 Jun 2004
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia follows the house-view asset allocation, within the constraints of pension fund prudential requirements, and a minimum investment of 35% in Namibian assets. Global equity markets did negative for 1Q04. The local financial markets did not follow the trend of international markets and posed positive returns, positive for the three months of 1Q04. The JSE all share did 3.7% for the quarter, while the NSX overall returned 5.9% for the quarter. The leading performer for 1Q04 was Non-Cyclical Services (13.6%) followed by Cyclical Consumer Goods (9.0%) and Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods (6.8%).
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia maintained an overweight stance in Financials and had a relatively large exposure to Banks and Mining Finance. Banks (9.7%) outperformed both the JSE and NSX during 1Q04 but Mining (-0.5%) underperformed both the JSE and the NSX during this period.
In the Namibian portfolio, where the Resource Sector (Anglo American Plc accounts for nearly 50% of the NSX market capitalization) and the Financial Sector (more than 30% of the NSX market capitalisation) dominate, the fund retained substantial exposures to Anglo America Financials.
The fund also had around 15% exposure to bonds and a 18% exposure to cash. Bonds returned -0.3% while cash did only 2% for 1Q04. Furthermore the fund has a 15% offshore exposure. The N$/Rand strengthened 4.8% against the Dollar and 8.1% against the Euro during 1Q04. This had a negative influence on the performance of the funds international investment.
Against this background the Namibia Managed Fund posed a return of 2.7% for 1Q04.
The Namibian prime rates were cut by 500bp during 2003. The lower rates have already worked their way through the economy and we believe they shall continue to do so. Against this background one should be overweight Industrials and Financials. We are overweight in both these sectors. We will continue to favour Financials and Industrials, although we have lightened our exposure to industrials.
Investec Namibian Managed comment - Dec 03 - Fund Manager Comment09 Feb 2004
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia follows the houseview asset allocation, within the constraints of pension fund prudential requirements, and a minimum investment of 35% in Namibian assets.
Global equity markets performed well especially from April 2003 to December 2003. The local financial markets followed suit and returns were excellent for both 4Q03 and for the year 2003. The JSE All Share Index did 17.1% for the quarter and 16.1% for the year 2003, while the NSX overall returned 17.2% for the quarter and 18.5% for the year. The good local performance for 4Q03 was led by IT (12.5%), followed by Basic Industries (10.7%) and Non-Cyclical Services (9.2%). The leading positive performer for the year was Non-Cyclical Services (113.6%) followed by IT (48.7%) and Cyclical Services (44.0%).
The Investec Managed Fund Namibia maintained an overweight stance in Financials and had a relatively large exposure to Banks and Mining Materials. Banks did 21.0% for 4Q03 and 23.3% for Y2003 and outperformed both the JSE and the NSX. On the other hand Resources did 14.0% for 4Q03 and 9.1% for Y2003 and underperformed for the quarter and the year.
In the Namibian portfolio, where the Resource Sector (Anglo American Plc accounts for nearly 60% of the NSX market capitalization) and the Financial Sector (more than 30% of the NSX market capitalisation) dominate, the fund retained substantial exposures to these two Sectors.
The fund also had around 20% exposure to bonds and a 20% exposure to cash. Both bonds (4Q03 (2.6%) and for the Y2003 (16.1%)) and Cash (2.0% for the quarter and 11.1% for the year) underperformed equities during Y2003.
Against this background the fund posted a return of 11.87% for the quarter ended 31 December 2003 and 16.6% for the year.
The Rand/N$ continued to be strong during 2003. This led to the lowest inflation rates in the last five years (< 4%) and a 500bp cut in interest rates during 2003. The lower rates have already worked their way through the economy and we believe they shall continue to do so. Against this background one should be overweight Industrials and Financials. As we are overweight in both these sectors, we will continue to favour Financials and Industrials.