Graviton SCI Medium Equity Comment - Dec 22 - Fund Manager Comment02 Mar 2023
Investors were seeking a "Santa Claus rally" in the final month of the year, however, December proved to be no different with volatility and losses seen throughout 2022. Most major global markets ended in negative territory, including South Africa. This comes as no surprise as it was driven by global central banks’ aggressive interest rate hikes to curb inflation. Increasing recession fears, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and increasing concerns over a surge in Covid-19 cases in China further contributed to the volatility.
The fourth quarter 2022 rally faded into year-end, with developed equity markets losing more ground in December but managed to deliver its first positive quarter of 2022. The MSCI World Index closed -4.34% m/m in USD and -4.25% m/m in ZAR. US tech stocks struggled once again, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling around 9% m/m, wiping out all its gains from 2022 and leaving itself comfortably in bear market territory for 2022 (around 32% down y/y). The S&P 500 returned -5.77% m/m. The Euro Stoxx 50 (€) returned -4.04% m/m. The UK’S blue-chip FTSE (£) fared better compared to counterparts, closing at -1.42% m/m.
Emerging equity markets outperformed their developed counterparts in the final month of the year, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index closed at -1.64% m/m in USD and -1.53% m/m in ZAR. China’s major market indices ended mixed, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rising, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell. This follows the country’s easing on Covid-19 restrictions and the unexpected surge in Covid-19 cases. The South African equity market followed world markets lower, but ended the year in positive territory. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index closed at -2.26% m/m and 3.58% y/y. On a yearly basis, the country was one of the select few major global stock markets to eke out a gain in 2022. Stocks geared towards the domestic economy were amongst the worst-performing during the month.
All major sectors finished the month in the "red." Resources took the biggest hit, closing at -3.58% m/m, followed by Financials closing at -1.71% m/m. Industrials fared slightly better, with the help of Naspers and Prosus closing at -0.07% m/m. SA Listed Property advanced for the third consecutive month, closing at 1.13% m/m. Local bonds continued to gain in the high interest rate environment, with the All Bond Index (ALBI) returning 0.62% m/m. Cash (STeFI) delivered a moderate return of 0.56% m/m. South African growth managers ( -1.15% m/m) outperformed value managers (-3.52% m/m), while the opposite occurred globally. The ZAR remained relatively unchanged against the safe-haven USD, closing at -0.10% m/m. Furthermore, the ZAR lost as much as 5.44%, 3.62% and 1.10% against the Japanese yen, euro, and sterling.