Please note that the commentary is for the US dollar retail class of the fund. The feeder fund is 100% invested in the underlying US dollar fund. However, given small valuation, trading and translation differences for the two funds, investors should expect differences in returns in the short term. Over the long term, we aim to achieve the same outcome in US dollar terms for both funds.

The narrative around the short-term driving forces of global equity markets has not changed materially since the previous quarter, nor since the beginning of the year. Investors are still fixated by the anticipation of lower interest rates in the US and the ebb and flow of trade war rhetoric between the US and its major trading partners. During the third quarter, these variables resulted in essentially a zeroreturn generated by global equities. We did see the US Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at its last Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but a slightly less dovish commentary surrounding the interest rate cut disappointed investors. On the other hand, there has been some reprieve in the tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both the US and China, with implementation dates pushed out and negotiations continuing. The year-to-date benchmark index return (MSCI Country All World Index) of 16.2% speaks more to a low base from the fourth quarter of last year (the 12 months lagging return is only 1.4%) than to better news on the economic or corporate profits fronts. The three-year return of 9.7% p.a. is slightly above long-term averages.

The US equity market continues to perform better than its counterparts around the world. It has outperformed Europe by 6.5% over the first nine months of the year and by over 4% over the last 12 months. The performance of its financial sector relative to that of Europe, as well as the strength of the information technology (IT) sector in the US explains the majority of this outperformance. Japan had a better quarter in relative terms, but still lags the US materially over the longer periods. Emerging markets (EMs) continue to underperform their developed market peers, primarily as a result of poorer corporate profit growth and some self-inflicted economic pain. Emerging market (EM) currencies by and large have actually been reasonably strong.

From a sectoral perspective, consumer staples outperformed over the quarter, while the economically sensitive energy and materials sectors underperformed. IT and real estate were also strong. Over the last 12 months, utilities and real estate were the strongest outperformers, on the back of expectations of lower interest rates, with consumer staples also outperforming the benchmark index by almost 9%. Energy and materials were the underperformers, with healthcare also lagging as a result of proposals by Democratic Party presidential candidates to radically overhaul the US healthcare system.

Global bonds continued to rally (reflecting lower yields), as concerns about global growth prospects lingered, with no visible signs of inflationary pressures in the developed economies. However, in dollar terms, most bond markets generated negative returns as a result of the stronger US dollar, discussed in more detail below. Over the last year, global bonds have generated very strong returns, with US bonds returning 11.0% and European bonds over 8%, despite the stronger US dollar over this period.

Global property performed well over the quarter, handsomely outperforming equities, and, over the last 12 months have now generated better returns than equities. Logistics continued to find favour with investors, but even retail real estate investment trusts (REITs) has a good quarter. Japanese property stocks did the best, with the US not far below. Hong Kong REITs and developers lost a fair amount of their value in the light of the escalation in violence in the territory.

The US dollar continues to strengthen against its major trading partners, causing more angst amongst the Trump administration about the competitiveness of US exports. The US dollar outperformed the Euro by over 4% over the quarter, and by 6.2% over the last year. The Japanese yen was the only major currency that strengthened against the US dollar over the last year.

In the light of the increased global uncertainties, it is not surprising that gold continued to do well, generating a positive return of almost 4% over the quarter. However, given the extent of the perceived risks around the globe, we are slightly disappointed by the performance of the precious metal.

Your fund performed in line with its benchmark over the quarter. Over the last year, the fund lags its benchmark due to the strong rally in global bonds, which we have been underweight for a long time. Over five years, the fund is slightly behind its benchmark, but has outperformed over the last seven years. In addition, the net compounded return over these seven years of 5.4% p.a. is a pleasing number for a multi-asset class fund with a substantial non-equity component.

Our equity holdings did slightly better than the index over the quarter, and significantly better over one year. Over both three and five years, the performance of the equity carve out has been credible. Our property stock picks have performed poorly over most periods, reflecting the impact that Intu Properties has had on the fund. In addition, some of the other UK and European property names also underperformed. Our fixed interest holdings detracted over the quarter but have had long periods of outperformance over the longer term. Gold added to performance, as did our decision to hedge some of our currency exposures back into US dollars.

Over the last 12 months, major contributors to the strong relative equity performance included both cable companies, Altice US and Charter Communications. These stocks rerated as earnings marginally surprised on the upside, and investors reassessed their cash flow prospects as capital spending is projected to decline significantly into the future. We discuss these stocks in more detail at the end of this report. Other contributors included both alternative asset managers Blackstone & Carlyle (strong operational results and corporate restructurings well received by investors), Adidas (strong operational result and a rerating), Pershing Square (strong investment results and good capital allocation), and Facebook (strong results despite negative news headlines).

Detractors included Intu Properties (further deterioration in UK retail environment putting pressure on an overleveraged balance sheet), Aspen (derating on balance sheet concerns), British American Tobacco (further derating on industry concerns), L Brands (poor trading resulting in a further decline in margins), and American Airlines (poor operating results with some balance sheet concerns). While the issue of over-indebtedness seems to be a common cause for underperformance, we believe most of these companies will be able to trade out of their balance sheet constraints. Intu Properties is the exception to this view, and the company is actively looking to address its balance sheet through asset sales and other means.

Both of our cable holdings, Charter Communications and Altice US, have strongly outperformed the market year to date, up 45% and 74%, respectively. As the leading providers of broadband internet in the US, we believe cable operators are well placed to benefit from the continued shift of entertainment online. Data usage in the US is high, with operators disclosing average monthly household data consumption of 250GB. This continues to grow strongly.

A cable system can be compared to an electricity grid transmitting data from one point to another, and today, most US homes have cable running past them, dug into the pavement many years before. Cable operators own advantaged infrastructure with speeds of 1Gb per second readily available and operate in natural monopolies in most towns and cities, making them well placed to benefit from the strong structural tailwind of rapidly increasing data demand.

The market has historically focused on cable’s declining traditional pay-TV business, even though broadband internet is now the primary product sold into the home. Broadband is a must-have, sticky product for consumers, is growing its subscriber base strongly and contributes the bulk of cable earnings and almost all free cash flow (FCF) today. Pay TV’s contribution to overall company valuation must not be over-estimated. We believe the cable investment case remains underappreciated, with Charter and Altice USA trading on 2020 FCF yields of 7% and 9% respectively and with strong growth in FCF expected. Both trade at material discounts to the market, and we continue to hold them as core positions in the funds.

We remain marginally underweight our benchmark in terms of equity exposure, given the global risks referred to above. We still see no value on global bonds and continue to have a fair exposure to property. We have trimmed our gold exposure somewhat recently. We continue to be excited about the prospects for our holdings in the portfolio, tempered somewhat by being mindful that the world is a volatile place right now.

Please note that the commentary is for the US dollar retail class of the fund. The feeder fund is 100% invested in the underlying US dollar fund. However, given small valuation, trading and translation differences for the two funds, investors should expect differences in returns in the short term. Over the long term, we aim to achieve the same outcome in US dollar terms for both funds.

No sooner had the dust settled on 2018 than global investors changed their focus from recessionary fears to the more dovish commentary from both the US and European central banks in response to the weaker global economic outlook amidst heightened trade war fears. Expectations around future interest rate moves repriced significantly, with investors now expecting the next move to be a decline in short rates in the US. While this outlook continues to discount a significantly more dovish scenario than suggested by the US Federal Reserve’s dot plot, this divergent interest rate view has been a feature of the market for quite some time. We continue to hold a slightly more hawkish view with regards to interest rates and believe the market has become too complacent about inflationary pressures as well as interest rates. Long bonds also repriced, with 10-year Treasuries now trading around 2.5% after touching 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018 (Q4-18).

Global equities performed well, almost fully erasing the declines of Q4-18, with the MSCI All Country World Index returning 12.2% over the quarter (Q1- 19) on a net basis. As a result, the lagging 12-month performance has turned positive again, achieving 2.6% (net). The US outperformed Europe by about 3% over Q1-19 and by 12.5% over the last year. Japan was a notable laggard over these periods, returning 6.6% over Q1-19, and negative 7.6% over the last year. Emerging markets (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) also underperformed their developed market peers by generating 9.9% (net) over Q1-19 and negative 7.4% (net) over the year. China bounced back strongly, as would have been expected given the slightly improved macroeconomic backdrop, but still performed poorly over the last 12 months. Information technology was the best-performing sector given the reduced long-term discount rate, while interest rate sensitive sectors such as real estate and consumer discretionary also did well. Energy rebounded on the back of the stronger oil price. Healthcare and financials were the laggards, with financials suffering from the flattening of, and drop in, the yield curve.

Surprisingly, the US dollar also strengthened by 2.2% against the euro and by 1.1% against the yen, contributing to the underperformance of the other regions. Gold was marginally positive over Q1-19.

As alluded to above, global bonds (as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregated Bond Index) had a good quarter, producing a positive return of 2.2% despite the stronger US dollar suppressing non-US asset returns. Over the last 12 months, the total return for global bonds was still marginally negative though. Global listed property performed well against the more benign outlook for interest rates, returning almost 15% over Q1- 19. All regions were strong, led by the US, although Japan again lagged the rest of the world. Retail property stocks rebounded from their oversold levels.

The fund had a strong quarter, generating alpha of 3.1% and a fund return of 11.2%, the best performance in absolute terms since its inception and close to the best performance on a relative basis. Over the last one, three and five years, the fund is now marginally behind its benchmark.

While we increased the fund’s equity exposure over Q1-19, we averaged an equity exposure of 60% so far this year, thus not fully benefiting from the sharp bounce in equity prices. Our property exposure, while lagging the overall property index returns, still contributed strongly to the good performance. Our fixed interest component was very conservatively positioned, thus not participating in the downward move in long bonds. Over the last 12 months the major detractors were our UK property holdings. Within equities, it was pleasing that some of our detractors in previous quarters turned around strongly in Q1-19 to contribute to performance. British American Tobacco was the biggest contributor (arguably from a very oversold position), followed by Altice USA which has rerated on slightly better-than-expected results and rumours of an asset sale that will help the company delever quicker than expected. Airbus continued to perform well, aided of late by the misfortunes of its biggest competitor, Boeing. Philip Morris, Charter Communications and Pershing Square Holdings (Pershing) also materially added to the fund’s outperformance.

Amongst our detractors Aspen stands out given the sharp sell-off in its share post the release of its latest set of results. The market focused on the risk of an unsuccessful proposed infant milk formula transaction, which will lead to a breach of bank covenants. Subsequent to quarter end, more positive news about this transaction has been released, and we remain positive that, post this transaction, the leverage will be much more manageable. CVS and Walgreens also detracted from performance on poorer results announcements and continued unease about Amazon’s intentions to enter the pharmaceutical space.

We have somewhat reduced both our equity and listed-property exposure into the rally, and hence the fund is marginally conservatively positioned. While equity valuations are not high, we remain circumspect regarding US interest rates while also keeping an eye on geopolitical developments.

Pershing is a stock we have held in the portfolio for a long time. We received some questions about this holding, as it represents an investment into a fund that is actively managed by Bill Ackman, an activist investment manager with a great track record, until a few years ago. The fund is a permanent capital vehicle with a relatively high fee structure. This means that unless Ackman performs very well, the fund will tend to perform worse than the market after fees. At the time of investing, Ackman’s fortunes have turned for the worse, following some high-profile disasters, such as investing in Valeant Pharmaceuticals and shorting Herbalife. We bought into the fund at a discount to net asset value (NAV) of about 15% - 20%, which consists of only listed equities.

Interventions by Ackman since we established our holding included buying back 10% of the fund at a 15% discount to NAV and investing another 10% into the fund in his personal capacity. Over the last 12 - 18 months, his fortunes started changing materially, to the extent that the fund has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by more than 20% over this time. Investors have continued to remain on the sidelines though, as is evidenced by the current discount to NAV of 27%. We believe that this level of discount is unsustainable, and that a number of alternative actions could help realise some or all of this value. In all of these outcomes investors will benefit substantially. At the same time though, we have reduced exposure to the stock somewhat, as we are worried that the asset values are now at challengingly high levels. This experience has again highlighted the benefit of taking a longer-term investment view. While these high-conviction ideas do not always work out as well as Pershing, we will continue to look for ideas across the investment spectrum, in both conventional and unconventional sectors and circumstances.