September saw the major global markets under pressure. In the US, the S&P 500 retreated 0.1% MoM and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed the month 0.5% in the red, while the Nasdaq Composite posted a gain of 1.7% MoM. In Europe and UK, the FTSE 100 gained 1.7% MoM, while the DAX retreated 0.8% MoM and the CAC ended September 0.2% higher MoM. In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite Index gave back most of August’s gains ending last month 2.6% in the red, while the Hang Seng rose 1.5% MoM.

In Japan, the Nikkei closed September 2.6% lower after weaker-than-expected consumption and inflation data and continued pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to ease monetary conditions further. Concerns about Deutsche Bank, and European banks in general, weighed on sentiment. Deutsche Bank, Germany’s biggest bank, has been impacted by a number of fines for wrongdoing and a sharp drop in its revenues which saw its share price plummet to below EUR10/share for the first time.

Locally, the JSE was down. For the month, the All Share Index lost 1.5% (+2.5% YTD), while the Indi-25, which includes a number of dual-listed UK shares and other rand hedges, gave back most of August’s gains to end September 4.4% down (YTD the index is 4.9% in the red).

After a stormy August, Financials managed to eke out a 0.4% gain in September (-3.3% YTD), while higher commodity prices buoyed Resource counters and the Resi-10 gained 4.4% MoM (the index is up 27.8% YTD). On the SA economic data front, GDP came in at 3.3% QoQ in 2Q16, far ahead of consensus expectations and easing concerns about SA plunging into a technical recession (two successive quarters of decline).

According to Bloomberg, the GDP data also marked SA’s fastest pace of growth since 2014. YoY GDP grew by 0.6%. Meanwhile, CPI dipped further in August to 5.9% and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repo rate at 7%, and also lifted its growth forecasts for the country slightly (from 0% to 0.4% for 2016). However, worse-than-expected trade data released on Friday showed that the trade balance had swung from a surplus of R5bn in July to a deficit of R8.6bn in August.

A surprise win by the leave camp (51.9% in favour vs 48.1% against) in the UK’s historic referendum on whether to remain or leave the EU (so-called Brexit), dominated headlines in June and saw most markets, SA included, gripped by turmoil towards the end of the month. The deci-sion saw the sterling plunge, while global equities and government bond yields also plummeted. The Financial Times described it as the larg-est single-day fall since at least 2007 with global markets losing $2trn-plus of value.

The result also saw British Prime Minister David Cameron resign, while European leaders held crisis meetings to determine the way forward. Nevertheless, following two days of upheaval, global mar-kets showed signs of stability on the third post-Brexit trading day, before rising again the last two days of June, as Brexit concerns eased somewhat on expectations of additional stimulus measures from central banks in the wake of the vote and with the Bank of England raising the possibility of bond buying and lowering interest rates to stimulate growth.

Prior to the vote, global economic optimism had cooled some-what on the back of weak US jobs data, which saw the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hold off on its decision to raise interest rates. On the commodities front, the Brexit vote saw renewed concerns over global growth and the oversupply of oil weighing on the price of Brent crude which traded below $50/barrel.

However, MoM the price of crude was basically unchanged. Gold, seen as a safe-haven asset, reached two-year price peaks and rose 8.3% MoM, buoying gold shares on the local bourse. YTD the gold price is now up 23.9%. The platinum price increased c. 7.6% for the month. Standard & Poor's decision not to downgrade SA’s credit rating, and Fitch maintaining its rating and outlook, seemed to have already been discounted by the market with investors now focusing on the next round in December.

On the economic data front, more bleak news emerged as Stats SA released GDP data which showed that the local economy contracted 1.2% in 1Q16, while April retail sales rose less-than-expected YoY and the 1Q16 current account deficit also disappointed. One positive was the May consumer inflation number which slowed to 6.1% YoY (from April’s 6.2%) on the back of lower food prices and well-below consensus expectation of a 6.4% rise

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No surprise that global markets ended the month of March higher, there was certainly enough stimuli: expectations that the oil price has bottomed, positive news regarding the Chinese economy, the ‘promise’ of further European market stimulus measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, saying the Fed should proceed "cautiously" in deciding when to raise interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed last month 7.1% higher (+1.5% YTD), its biggest monthly gain since October 2015, while the S&P 500 Index advanced 6.6% MoM (+0.8% YTD) and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 6.8% MoM (although the index ended 1Q16 with a 2.7% loss). In Europe, the FTSE rose 1.6% MoM (-1.1% YTD), while the CAC 40 gained 1.3% MoM (-1.1% YTD) and the DAX advanced 0.7% MoM (-5.4% YTD).

Investor concerns around China seemed to stabilise with data from the world’s second-biggest economy in recent weeks showing a rebound in consumer sentiment. Among these, March data activity in China's factory sector recorded growth for the first time in nine months. China’s Shanghai Composite Index was up 11.8% MoM (-15.1% YTD), while the Hang Seng Index rose 8.7% MoM (-5.2% YTD). In Japan the Nikkei ended the month 4.6% up on the back of a weaker yen, although the index was still down 12.0% YTD.

On the commodities front, early March saw spot iron-ore prices rally by over $10/tonne in one day with the price now sitting at c. $53/tonne. At the same time the Brent crude oil price, which started rebounding in February (surprising many pundits), rose a further 10.0% MoM to just under $40/barrel (YTD the price is up 6.2%). The gold price has also been a big winner, rising 16.0% YtD; however, on a MoM basis the yellow metal ended flat despite upticks during the course of March as investors took some profits. Locally, the JSE (All Share Index) closed the month 5.7% higher (+3.1% YTD).

The rand was trading at its best levels this year with the Constitutional Court’s decision on President Jacob Zuma’s Nkandla upgrades at the end of the month, a smaller-than-expected SA trade deficit and a weaker greenback all factors supporting rand strength.

Volatility continued into September; emerging market currencies depreciated sharply as fears over China growth continued and platinum fell to an all time low after Volkswagen were outed for cheating on their emissions tests. On top of this, the US Fed decided to keep rates unchanged, despite many months of ‘preparing’ the market for a rate hike, which set the stage for SARB who also kept rates unchanged.

US economic indicators released during the month showed that the country was well on the path to recovery with US consumer confidence at its highest level since January and GDP growth revised upward to 3.9%, driven by stronger than previously thought consumer spending.

However, the Fed cited volatility in global markets and uncertainty of world economic growth as reasons for not raising interest rates and then a week later Yellen indicated that a rate hike could still become a reality before year-end.

Locally, economic data showed that mining production increased 5.6% YoY in July and manufacturing production rose by a stronger-than expected 5.6% YoY. However, the August trade deficit widened as exports of minerals such as coal and iron-ore dropped and oil imports rose. The 3Q15 RMB/BER business confidence index fell for a third straight quarter and consumer confidence dropped to a 14-year low in 2Q15 as high unemployment (c. 25%), a weakening currency and accelerating food inflation put pressure on consumers. The rand’s freefall continued (down 4.5% MoM and 20.0% YTD) with the currency hitting an all-me low of R14.09/$1 last Thursday. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6%.

On the JSE, resource counters were again hit hard in September and among the main indices, the RESI-10 was the worst performer, dropping by 11.7% MoM (YTD it is down by 25.0%). The FINI-15 lost 3.0% (up 1.4% YTD), while the INDI-25 closed the month 4.6% higher (+7.7% YTD). The FTSE JSE All Share Index recorded a slight increase of 0.2% MoM and the index is up 0.6% YTD