BCI Best Blend Cautious comment - Jun 14 - Fund Manager Comment25 Aug 2014
Global and local markets were eventful in June, starting with China and Japan which both displayed improvements in their PMI numbers. Japan is undertaking a three pronged approach involving monetary and fiscal stimulus as well as structural reforms involving tax cuts, industry liberalisation and increased diversity of the workforce. The Nikkei 225 delivered 3.62%, while the Shanghai Composite returned 0.54%. Europe took measures to counter deflation, by cutting its refinancing rate to 0.15% and has made deposit rates -0.1% making it unattractive for banks to hold cash. This was eclipsed by the ECB's targeted LTRO plan, which lends banks up to €400 billion at declining rates if they lend more. Overall, European markets experienced a sell-off of 2%, led by Financials when BNP Paribas was found guilty of violating US sanctions and given a $9 billion penalty. The US had a faster-than-expected inflation rate which was 2.1% and drove bond yields upwards temporarily, but assurances from the Fed that interest rates would remain low eased fears. US markets performed well with the S&P delivering 2% and NASDAQ recovering some biotech and tech losses to deliver 4%. Local markets rallied led by Resources (3.45%) and followed by Industrials (2.80%) and Financials (2.70%). The resources sector has been recovering after unions reached an agreement with the platinum miners to end the 5-month long strike. The Top 40 delivered 3.03%, mid-caps returned 1.7% and small caps were flat. Inflation linked bonds (1.4%) outperformed nominal bonds (0.95%), while cash delivered 0.47%. Inflation has reached 6.60% on the back of increasing food and transport prices. The rand weakened to R10.63/$, R14.55/€ and R18.17/£.