Absa International comment - Sep 11 - Fund Manager Comment27 Oct 2011
September was a particularly difficult month for global equity markets, with the MSCI World Index returning a negative 8.8% for the month. Among the numerous problems causing nervousness in equity markets, the Eurozone debt crisis remained of particular con-cern as it continues to prove difficult to find a solution to the Greek default issue that is acceptable to all parties. A softening in eco-nomic growth in global emerging markets only added fuel to the fire. On the positive side, it does seem that inflation, while rising, will not run rampant. The months ahead are likely to reflect a similar patter to the recent past.
Against this backdrop, US Treasuries remained in enormous demand as the "risk off" trade remained in place, resulting in a decline in the yield on ten year US Government debt from 2.20% to 1.93% over the month.
As the global economy remains on the back foot, we continue to retain an element of caution in our positioning, continuing to view the market as one in which careful stock-picking will be of paramount importance.
Absa International comment - Jun 11 - Fund Manager Comment22 Aug 2011
Global equity markets declined again in June, the MSCI World Index declining by 1.7% over the month. As a flood of concerns, mainly over sovereign debt in the Euro region, raised its collective head again, the old adage of "sell in May and go away" seems to be the current winning formula. While Europe is trying hard to work out a solution to Greece's problems, a default by that country does seem inevitable. In the USA, the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) came to an end at the end of June as planned amid an impasse between Congress and the Obama administration on raising the USA borrowing limit, the current limit of $14.3 trillion having already been reached.
Against this backdrop, global sovereign bond yields continued to decline during the month before spiking sharply upwards over the last few days of the period.
As the global outlook takes a step backward, we retain an element of caution in our positioning, continuing to view the market as one in which careful stock-picking will be of paramount importance.
Absa International comment - Mar 11 - Fund Manager Comment11 May 2011
The month of March was overshadowed by the catastrophic impact of the massive Japanese earthquake and resulting tsunami and nuclear disaster. Markets reflected the negative impact that this could potentially have on the fragile recovery that is currently driving world growth expectations, with the MSCI World Index declining by 1.2%. Strongly rising oil prices, driven by the on-going conflict in North Africa and the Middle East, also fuelled the negative sentiment. On the positive side, USA fourth quarter GDP numbers were revised upward to 3.1% while both retail and employment data were encouraging.
Global sovereign bond yields fell markedly post the Japanese disaster before rising again to close the month at levels very similar to the previous month.
Although the current environment is looking more positive, recent events, coupled with worries over further European bailouts cause us to retain an element of caution in our outlook, viewing the market as one in which careful stock-picking will be of paramount importance.
Absa International comment - Dec 10 - Fund Manager Comment15 Feb 2011
As the market digested the announcement in November of the introduction of a further round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, whereby it will purchase $600 billion of government bonds by 30 June 2011, equity markets recovered their November losses during December. Data releases continued to be positive on balance, yet employment data remains of concern, particularly in the consumer driven market of the USA. Debt concerns in Europe continue to bubble just below the surface. The underlying current, however, is that corporate results for the quarter ended 31 December 2010 will be very good.
Global bond yields rose quite sharply during the first half of the month before declining slightly before month end. The outlook for infla-tion remains unclear in the short term, but fears of deflation do appear to be receding.
While the current environment leads us to remain cautious in our outlook, we believe that solid investment opportunities will continue to present themselves.