Absa Inflation Beater comment - Sep 09 - Fund Manager Comment27 Oct 2009
The Absa Inflation Beater Fund has returned 9.6% p.a. for the 5 years to 30 September 2009, comfortably ahead of Headline CPI over this period of 6.8%. The Fund has also returned 8.4% over the past year.
Persistently high food and oil prices, and inflation in the services sector kept CPI out of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) target range for some time, but the collapse of the oil price from its peak and generally slowing economy have provided some relief on the inflation front. The Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has now cut interest rates by 500 basis points from their peak. However, the high indebtedness of local consumers, coupled with the effects of the National Credit Act, job losses and the generally tough economic environment, will likely see personal consumption figures remain depressed for some time.
Equities had another up-month in September, and have now rebounded sharply from their lows in March. As at 30 September, the JSE All-Share Index is up by almost 19% in the current year. Noteworthy performances in the month were Oil and Gas, which gained over 5% and Automobiles & Parts, which was up by almost 20%. Within Industrials, Construction & Materials was again very strong, gaining almost 7%. Underperforming sectors were Oil & Gas and Telecomms (both down by almost 4%), and Coal Mining, which was down by over 16%.
Feelings of outright panic in the market, which characterized the depths of the credit crisis, appear to have largely subsided. Nonetheless, we continue to be somewhat cautious on the prospects for a speedy economic recovery. In addition to equity risk stemming from international conditions - slowing economies worldwide, weak demand and tighter access to credit - there is some uncertainty surrounding the economic fundamentals within South Africa. The impact of lower commodity prices and lower demand are adversely impacting local mining companies and exporters. We have been willing to sacrifice some short-term performance by keeping our equity exposures to companies where we are comfortable with future earnings prospects.
Currency volatility has traditionally been a significant aspect for South African investors to consider, and the local currency has strengthened sharply in the current year. In September the Rand strengthened from 7.77 to 7.70 against the US Dollar, strengthened slightly against the Euro (from 11.14 to 11.12), and against the Pound from 12.64 to 12.27.
A number of local stocks are still trading at parity or a discount with the market at large, yet have higher earnings and dividend yields, strong business franchises and strong balance sheets. We will continue to seek out such shares and position the fund appropriately.
The Absa Inflation Beater Fund continues to be positioned so as to minimize the risk of capital loss, while targeting a return in excess of inflation.
Absa Inflation Beater comment - Jun 09 - Fund Manager Comment27 Aug 2009
The Absa Inflation Beater Fund has returned 9.6% p.a. for the 5 years to 30 June 2009, comfortably ahead of Headline CPI over this period of 6.6%. The Fund is in the top quartile amongst its peers for the past 1 year, having returned 12.8% over the period.
Persistently high food and oil prices, and inflation in the services sector kept CPI out of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) target range for some time, but the collapse of the oil price from its peak and generally slowing economy have provided some relief on the inflation front. The Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, having cut interest rates by 450 basis points from their peak. However, the high indebtedness of local consumers, coupled with the effects of the National Credit Act, job losses and the generally tough economic environment, will likely see personal consumption figures remain depressed for some time.
Equities gave up some territory in June, having rebounded sharply from their lows in March. As at 30 June, the JSE All-Share Index is up by 4.1% in the current year, although the Index lost just over 3% in June. Breaking the recent trend, more cyclical shares were sharply lower in June. Basic Materials were particularly hard hit in the month, down by over 8.5%. Gold mining shares were down over 17%, and Forestry & Paper lost over 14%. To mention some of the better performing sectors, Pharmaceuticals were up by almost 11% and Financials by over 4%.
In our opinion, the outlook for equity markets is still uncertain and we continue to be somewhat cautious on the prospects for a speedy economic recovery. In addition to equity risk stemming from international conditions - slowing economies worldwide, weak demand and tighter access to credit - there is some uncertainty surrounding the economic fundamentals within South Africa. The impact of lower commodity prices and lower demand, as well as the stronger Rand, are adversely impacting local mining companies and exporters. We have been willing to sacrifice some short-term performance by keeping our equity exposures to companies where we are comfortable with future earnings prospects.
Currency volatility has traditionally been a significant aspect for South African investors to consider, and the local currency has strengthened sharply in the current year. Over the month, the Rand strengthened from 8.00 against the US Dollar to 7.86, from 11.34 against the Euro to 10.95, and from 13.14 against the Pound to 12.84.
Despite the uncertain environment, we do note that valuations of many shares are fairly attractive, and are offering investors the prospects of superior long-term returns. A number of local stocks are trading at parity or a discount with the market at large, yet have higher earnings and dividend yields, strong business franchises and strong balance sheets. We will continue to seek out such shares and position the fund appropriately.
The Absa Inflation Beater Fund continues to be positioned so as to minimize the risk of capital loss, while targeting a return in excess of inflation.
Absa Inflation Beater comment - Mar 09 - Fund Manager Comment20 May 2009
The Absa Inflation Beater Fund has returned 9.4% p.a. for the 5 years to 31 March 2009, comfortably ahead of Headline CPI over this period of 6.3%. The Fund is in the top quartile amongst its peers for the past 1 year, having returned 10.3% over the period.
Persistently high food and oil prices and inflation in the services sector has kept CPIX out of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) target range for some time, but the recent collapse of the oil price and generally slowing economy have provided some relief, and we expect that the Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will continue to cut interest rates going forward.
Although the interest rate tightening cycle has now reached a peak, we do point out that the high absolute level of interest rates, along with the effects of the National Credit Act, looming job losses and the generally tough economic environment, will likely lead to further slowing of personal consumption figures, even with interest rates coming down.
March was a runaway month for equities, with the All Share Index up over 11%. Despite this, the All Share Index is still down over 4% year-to-date. In March, Basic Materials were up by almost 15%, led by Platinum stocks, which were up by over 30%. Telecommunications stocks were up by over 21%, and Financials were up by more than 12%. Generally, defensive stocks were the laggards in March.
The outlook for equity markets is still uncertain and we continue to be somewhat cautious. In addition to equity risk stemming from international conditions - the global banking crisis, elevated spreads in global credit markets and slowing economies worldwide - there is some uncertainty surrounding the economic fundamentals within South Africa. Investors still need to gain confidence in the new political leadership of the country and the current account deficit remains a problem, even as lower commodity prices and lower demand are adversely impacting mining companies and exporters.
Currency volatility, and the general weakness of the Rand, have been significant aspects for South African investors to consider, although the local currency bounced back further in March. Over the month, the Rand strengthened from 10.47 against the US Dollar to 9.57, from 13.20 against the Euro to 12.62, and from 14.75 against the Pound to 13.70.
Despite the uncertain environment, we do note that valuations of many shares are increasingly attractive, and are progressively offering investors the prospects of superior long-term returns. A number of local stocks are trading at parity or a discount with the market at large, yet have higher earnings and dividend yields, strong business franchises and strong balance sheets. We will continue to seek out such shares and position the fund appropriately.
The Absa Inflation Beater Fund continues to be positioned so as to minimize the risk of capital loss, while targeting a return in excess of inflation.
Absa Inflation Beater comment - Dec 08 - Fund Manager Comment25 Feb 2009
The Absa Inflation Beater Fund has returned 9.6% p.a. for the 5 years to 31 December 2008, comfortably ahead of Headline CPI over this period of 6.5%. The Fund is in the top quartile amongst its peers for the past 1 year, having returned 10.7% for the year.
Persistently high food and oil prices, and inflation in the services sector, have kept CPIX out of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) target range for some time, but the recent collapse of the oil price and generally slowing economy has provided some relief. Accordingly, the Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its December meeting.
Currency volatility, and the general weakness of the Rand, have been significant aspects for South African investors to consider, though in December there was finally a rebound in the local currency. The Rand strengthened from 10.55 to 9.53 against the US Dollar in December, from 13.25 against the Euro to 13.16, and from 15.64 against the Pound to 13.73.
December was another up month in equities, with the All Share Index gaining around 1.5%. Industrials and telecommunications both gained around 5%, with Consumer Services and Technology up over 7%. Gold shares surged almost 13% in the month. On the negative side was Financials, losing just over 1%, driven partly by a 2% sell-off in banks.
The outlook for equity markets is still uncertain and we continue to be somewhat cautious. In addition to equity risk stemming from international conditions - the global banking crisis, elevated spreads in global credit markets and slowing economies worldwide - there is some uncertainty surrounding the economic fundamentals within South Africa. Investors still need to gain confidence in the new political leadership of the country and the current account deficit remains a problem, even as lower commodity prices and lower demand are adversely impacting mining companies and exporters.
Although the interest rate tightening cycle appears to have now reached a peak, we do point out that the high absolute level of interest rates, the effects of the National Credit Act and looming job losses will likely slow personal consumption figures further, even with interest rates coming down.
We do, however, note that valuations of many shares are increasingly attractive, and are progressively offering investors the prospects of superior long-term returns. A number of local stocks are trading at parity or a discount with the market at large, yet have higher earnings and dividend yields, strong business franchises and strong balance sheets. We will continue to seek out such shares and position the fund appropriately.
The Absa Inflation Beater Fund continues to be positioned so as to minimize the risk of capital loss, while targeting a return in excess of inflation.