Capicorn International fund comment - Dec 24 - Fund Manager Comment27 Mar 2025
International equities delivered modest positive returns for the month, with the Fund posting a 4.33% return, bringing the 12- month performance to 20.85%. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia continue to weigh on investor sentiment, raising concerns about supply disruptions and weakened global demand.
Market volatility is heightened by upcoming US tariffs and policy shifts under the Trump presidency, impacting sectoral performance. Commodity markets saw notable fluctuations, with gold dropping sharply but still up 24% year-to-date as a safe-haven asset. Oil prices softened, while El Niño impacts pushed domestic grain prices higher, affecting commodity-sensitive sectors.
The US economy remains resilient despite recession risks, while Europe and Asia show signs of stabilization. Inflation in developed markets is nearing the 2% target, though the Fed remains cautious with core inflation above 3%. The IMF projects 3.2% global growth for 2024, though uncertainty remains elevated.
The strong US Dollar, driven by safe-haven demand and favorable interest rate differentials, pushed the ZAR above 18.00/USD.